Bankroll to bankrupt in three minutes
Dear Mark,
Since I don't gamble very often and chances of losing eight in
a row are very remote, don't you think it's logical to double
my wager every time I lose? Albert M.
I see your logic, if you call it logic, but it isn't. What you
are describing is called the Martingale System, a historic name
for doubling up after every loss. In essence, you the gambler
double your previous bet (after a loss) to recoup that loss plus
win back your initial wager. It is probably-no, IT IS-the worst
money management system you can use. You would think, logically,
this form of betting is foolproof because you have to win sooner
or later. The problem is, you don't have an inexhaustible bankroll,
and our friends who own the casinos will limit the maximum size
of your wager. Also, ask any gambler you know if six or eight
losses in a row is not unusual. I'm experiencing it now with a
computer program that picks the pros in football.
But Albert, I really want you to think this through. Here's you.
You bet $2 and lose, then $4 to recoup your losses. Then $8, $16,
$32, $64, $128, $256, $512. Ka-ching, Kaa-ching, you invested
$1,020 just to get your measly two bucks back. Oops, but you were
playing on a game that had a table limit of $200. A string of
six defeats and the casino automatically protects itself plus
sets your loss limit at $252. Wiped out, Albert, in less than
three minutes.
The Martingale system is not logical, it's downright lethal.
It's so obvious, Albert. No more, please.
Dear Mark,
What is a hardway number on a crap game and is it a good bet?
Steve. R.
A hardway wager is a 4-6-8-10, but only paired up as a 2-2,
3-3, 4-4, 5-5 combination. For example; if you have a hard six
wager, a pair of 3-3s would have to roll for you to win. Not a
2-4 or 5-1 dice roll. Is it a good bet? No! House advantage on
a hardway 6 or 8 is 9.1 percent. A hardway 4 or 10 has an 11.1
percent casino edge. Readers of Deal Me In only make wagers
that have a house advantage of two percent or less. Steve, say
adios to this wager.
Dear Mark,
On my last two trips to Las Vegas I have found slots ($1 machines
at the Stratosphere) advertising a return of 98%. I didn't seem
to get a decent return on them. Shouldn't the casino, in such
a regulated business like gambling, at least pay back the percentage
they advertise? Dottie C.
When a casino advertises that its slot machines return 98 percent,
it means the machine is pre-programmed "over the long run"
to return 98¢ of every dollar played. Don't come to expect
that for each dollar inserted you will automatically get 98¢
dribbling back into the tray. The operative phrase here is "over
the long run." A "long run" could mean weeks, months,
and even years on any given machine.
But let's assume the machine you were playing was paying off 98¢
for each and every dollar bet. Using a liberal definition of the
word "good" machine, we'll allow the casino a measly
2% edge. Well, Dottie, if you were to insert $60 per minute into
a 98% payback slot machine (not difficult on a dollar machine
at $3 a whack using a credit button), you will lose about $72
an hour. Multiply that by eight hours of play and you will come
up $576 short in the purse. Even on those advertised high payback
machines, the casino still has a way of grinding away at your
gambling capital.
The way you avoid this $576 grind is to behave more conservatively
by playing on smaller denomination machines (25¢), for shorter
increments of time. Casino operators know all to well that such
cautious behavior has negative implications on the casino win
for the house. They would much prefer you ante-up silver slugs
and play all day.
Oh, by the way, Dottie, all too often players like you believe
that the casino is in the gambling business. Wrong! They are in
the math business. On pre-programmed slot machines that give the
house a certain percentage return, you are the only one doing
the gambling here.