You still lose, just less often
Dear Mark,
Every basic strategy card, blackjack book, and yes, you, recommend
splitting eights against a dealer 10. Well, fear gets the better
of me, and I depart from correct play and just hit instead of
splitting the pair. So what should I do about a hand that always
seems to haunt me? Hit, split or play the hunch? Scott N.
You're right, Scott, eights against a 10 is a phantasmal hand
that stalks most players like Marley's ghost.
As my readers know, blackjack is a game where the proper hit,
stand, splitting and doubling decisions are necessary in order
to cut the house edge down to a minimum. These proper decisions
are called basic strategy and have been arrived at by computer
simulations of millions of hands.
But fallacious logic tells you that splitting this hand creates
two losers. Seems every time you split those eights you get, at
best, two 10s. Then the dealer always has a nine or 10 in the
hole, and bang, the jingling you hear is not Marley's forged chains
but all your money falling into the dealer's tray.
So what happens to the average player? He starts deviating from
basic strategy because FEAR sets in. The FEAR is actually False
Evidence Appearing Real. FEAR camouflages
the logic of computer studies. But according to basic strategy,
the proper move is to split 8s if the game you're playing doesn't
allow surrender. Why? Because you will lose more money in the
long run if you hit instead of splitting. Mathematically, when
you just hit the hand, you will lose $51 for every $100 wagered.
However, if you split, you will lose $44 for every $100 bet. A
seven dollar difference for every hundred dollars wagered.
Granted, Scott, it's a character builder to come out of pocket
with additional money, but the key behind basic strategy is: Win
more money not necessarily more hands.
Dear Mark,
I've been around computers since 1978 and some folks even call
me a computer genius. My new project is to develop a hand-held
computer I can conceal in my pocket and try counting cards with
much more accuracy. What are the risks/consequences if caught
with a hand-held computing device in my possession in a casino?
Anonymous
Dear Anonymous, allow me to let Beavis and Butthead spell it
out for you: "Just because you own a computer doesn't mean
you still can't be stupid."
Dear Mark,
I have been following your advice and making casino bets that
have less than a two percent house advantage. I now consider myself
a reformed player. My blockhead brother on the other hand makes
bets with no rhyme or reason. Since we both play craps, show me
why my pass line bet versus his favorite bet, hardway sixes and
eights, will always do better? Susan M.
Susan, by using a simple mathematical formula, I will prove
that by playing smart, your play will generally outperform your
brother's.
Let's first analyze your action, Susan. A pass line bet, with
no odds, has a house advantage of 1.4%. With a $5 wager and 50
playing decisions per hour, your theoretical loss (all bets lose
over time) is $5 X 50 X 0.014, or $3.50 per hour. Relatively cheap
entertainment. In comparison, your brother's bet, the hard six
or eight, has a house advantage of 9.1%. The damage to his bankroll
would be $5 X 50 X 0.091, or $22.75 in the same amount of time.
Multiply that by 15 hours of play and you've got a sniveling,
unhappy camper with a long car ride home.
Sibling rivalry aside, glad to see you're reforming your play.
Now let's convert the blockhead.